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External validation of a six simple variable model of stroke outcome and verification in hyper-acute stroke.

Reid JM, Gubitz GJ, Dai D, Reidy Y, Christian C, Counsell C, Dennis M, Phillips SJ

Institute of Neurological Sciences, 1345 Govan Road, Glasgow G51 4TF, Scotland, UK. johnmreid@doctors.net.uk

We aimed to validate a previously described six simple variable (SSV) model that was developed from acute and sub-acute stroke patients in our population that included hyper-acute stroke patients. A Stroke Outcome Study enrolled patients from 2001 to 2002. Functional status was assessed at 6 months using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). SSV model performance was tested in our cohort. 538 acute ischaemic (87%) and haemorrhagic stroke patients were enrolled, 51% of whom presented to hospital within 6 h of symptom recognition. At 6 months post-stroke, 42% of patients had a good outcome (mRS < or = 2). Stroke patients presenting within 6 h of symptom recognition were significantly older with higher stroke severity. In our Stroke Outcome Study dataset, the SSV model had an area under the curve of 0.792 for 6 month outcomes and performed well for hyper-acute or post-acute stroke, age < or > or = 75 years, haemorrhagic or ischaemic stroke, men or women, moderate and severe stroke, but poorly for mild stroke. This study confirms the external validity of the SSV model in our hospital stroke population. This model can therefore be utilised for stratification in acute and hyper-acute stroke trials.

Published 20 November 2007 in J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry, 78(12): 1390-1.
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